Extratropical storms are associated with well defined circulation patterns that affect the location of coastal impacts and their intensity. Using newly available reanalyses of weather data of the past century and more, we will generate robust estimates of probabilities by frequency, spatial extent, track, and intensity of storms that affect the Northeast coast and close by inland regions and determine trends and variability patterns. In particular we will explore the possibility of creating information that is conditional on large-scale circulation states such as those related to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation phenomena. This work will enable improved estimates of the space-time, conditional probabilities of wind and precipitation extremes, allow improved downscaling of future model scenarios, and provide probabilistic scenarios for forcing hydrodynamics coastal models to assess coastal inundation and impact on infrastructure.
Investigators: Yochanan Kushnir, Radley Horton, Lisa Goddard, Upmanu Lall, Alan Blumberg, Julie Pullen, Philip Orton, Suzana Camarga, Andrew Robertson